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英国房产市场入冬 预测2015年房价微跌0.8%

发布者: 编辑3 | 发布时间: 2016-9-7 06:11| 查看数: 1948| 评论数: 0|帖子模式

根据最新预测显示,英国房价或将在明年呈负增长,这意味着英国房产市场正面临一个重要的转折点。
英国经济和商业研究中心(CEBR)在10月6日作出的预测称,英国在今年的平均房屋要价预计将上升7.8%,并将在2015年回落0.8%。他们还表示,由于新买家对房产的需求已有所降温,且房产市场又出现滞销的情况,导致英国某些地区的房价明显下滑。而在例如伦敦等房价较高的地区,买家们也开始对高房价楼盘望而却步,这也使得购买力成为了一个大难题。
英国经济和商业研究中心宏观经济主任以及本篇报告的作者Scott Corfe称,“明年,英国房价将有所下跌,但跌幅较缓,我们不需要太过担心,毕竟这不会是一场大动荡。只是经历了2014年初的房价飙升后市场需要一段时间的自我调整”。
最新发布的预测中的种种迹象也预示英国房产市场正迎来寒潮。根据英国银行的数据显示,英国最大的房屋建筑协会Nationwide在今年九月宣布了英国在17个月内的第一次房价大跳水,平均房价仅为188,374英镑,而八月份,住房抵押贷款也迎来了连续两月的下跌。
房贷客户则认为四月份最新实施的房贷市场审查制度也可能是导致英国房产市场降温的原因。
Corfe指出,“更加严苛的住房贷款资格标准的实施,存款额度的提高,以及对未来回报率的未知已经开始影响英国房产市场”。
英国银行行长Mark Carney暗示明年开春英国即将迎来一次利率的上涨。而有关决策机构则表示虽然利率将从低点缓步上升,但习惯了低廉借贷成本的潜在买家,仍有可能会对利率的升高感到措手不及,甚至搁置置业的想法。
(点击下一页,查看英文原文)
UK house prices expected to fall by 0.8% in 2015
Experts say market will avoid a crash but needs to readjust after price rises of 2014
House prices are expected to dip in 2015.
Britain’s housing market has reached a turning point with price growth expected to turn negative next year – but the market will avoid a crash, according to the latest forecasts.
Average house prices across the UK will dip by 0.8% in 2015, after growing by an estimated 7.8% this year, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicted on Monday.
Inquiries from new buyers are already declining and properties are staying on the market for longer before they sell, leading to price declines in some parts of the UK. Affordability has become a real issue in the more expensive areas, such as London, with buyers starting to balk at high prices, the CEBR says.
“Price falls next year will be modest and we shouldn’t be too worried about this – we are not anticipating a crash. The market is adjusting after getting ahead of itself at the start of 2014,” said Scott Corfe, head of macroeconomics at CEBR and the main author of the report.
The new forecasts are being published amid other signs that the housing market is cooling.
Nationwide, the UK’s biggest building society, reported the first drop in house prices in 17 months in September, taking the average price tag to £188,374 while mortgage approvals for house purchases fell for the second month running in August, according to Bank of England figures.
New rules on the way mortgage customers must be assessed – known as mortgage market review – which came into effect in April are also being cited as a possible factor.
“Tougher mortgage eligibility criteria, high deposit requirements and concerns about future rate rises are starting to take steam out of the UK housing market,” said Corfe.
The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, has signalled that the first rise in interest rates will come by the spring. While policymakers have indicated that rates will go up from their current record low in “baby steps”, a rate increase after years of ultra-low borrowing costs is still likely to startle any would-be buyers and could lead many to hold off from making a purchase.

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